Phil Hahn
CTVNews.ca Producer
If a federal election were held now, Nanos Research's latest seat projections show Liberals would be in tough fights in ridings they won in 2021 -- including those in metropolitan areas in B.C. and Ontario.
Nanos Research conducts weekly national ballot tracking as well as monthly seat projections, to show how popular support for a party could translate into seats in the House of Commons. Circumstances could change by the time of the next federal election, which will take place on or before Oct. 20, 2025, however, and they could change significantly during an election campaign.
On the latest episode of Trend Line, Nik Nanos, chair of Nanos Research and CTV News' official pollster, picked out some highlights from regions across Canada in which there are interesting battles, to give you a snapshot of where things stand today.
In the following maps provided by Nanos Research, federal ridings in black represent those where projections for a winning party aren't possible because the margin of victory is within two per cent – which is too close to call. Areas in grey represent ridings where the margins are between two per cent and seven per cent.
BRITISH COLUMBIA
Nanos Research's current seat projections in B.C.'s Lower Mainland (on left), election results in 2021 (on right).
The Liberals currently hold 15 out of 42 ridings in B.C. The Conservatives and NDP both have 13, while the Greens hold one seat in the province.While we see "massive swaths" of red in the Lower Mainland on the 2021 election results map on the right above, "there's no red on the map right now," said Nanos, referring to the current projections map on the left. All of the current Liberal ridings in B.C.'s Lower Mainland – which covers the southwest corner of the province and makes up 60 per cent of the population -- are therefore in play if an election were held today.
The NDP, meanwhile, appears as if they'd be able to hold on to their B.C. ridings.
"The key takeaway here in British Columbia, the Lower Mainland B.C., Vancouver, is that the Liberals are on their heels and they're in a fight in some really tight races in in British Columbia," said Nanos on the latest episode of CTV News Trend Line.
ALBERTA
Nanos Research's current seat projections in Edmonton (on left), election results in 2021 (on right).
The Conservatives hold 29 out of 34 seats in Alberta, while the Liberals and NDP have two each. One seat is vacant.
While Alberta remains strong for the federal Conservatives in Nanos' projections and appears to be a "lock" for them if an election were held today, things get interesting once you zoom in on Edmonton.
In the 2021 federal election, the NDP picked up two ridings (Edmonton—Strathcona and Edmonton Griesbach) while the Liberals captured Edmonton Centre. The NDP looks to be able to hold on to Edmonton Strathcona, but Edmonton Griesbach is a battle. In 2021, the NDP won that riding over the second-place Conservatives by 1,500 votes.
The Liberals are also being challenged in Edmonton Centre, where the margin between the Liberals and Conservatives was just 615 votes in 2021.
The Conservatives, meanwhile, are in for a fight in Edmonton Mill Woods, where in the last election, 1,893 votes was the difference between them and the second-place Liberals.
ONTARIO
Nanos Research's current seat projections in the GTA (on left), election results in 2021 (on right).
In the last federal election, the Liberals captured 76 of Ontario's 121 seats, to the Conservatives' 36 and five for the NDP.
Nanos said "for folks that are on the red team, you're probably going to clutch your chest when you see this map," which shows ridings in the Greater Toronto Area that were a sea of red are now too close to call -- within a two-per cent margin, or a toss-up between two and seven per cent.
"Basically, almost right across the board, everything is in play," said Nanos.
"The interesting thing is that in downtown Toronto, it's in play between the New Democrats and the Liberals. And when we get into the suburbs, the greater 905, it's a fight between the Liberals and the Conservatives."
In the Niagara region, the Conservatives are experiencing a "little bit of a setback" and the Liberals would have a chance to pick up seats in that region.
"So right now big battleground Toronto and the 905 GTA is up for grabs. Both the New Democrats and the Conservatives are probably trying to prime themselves to pick up ridings at the expense of the Liberals."
QUEBEC
Quebec is the "one positive piece of news for the federal Liberals, there's not as much at risk" for them in the province," said Nanos.
The Liberals currently hold 34 of the province's 78 seats while the Bloc has 32. The Conservatives have nine seats while the NDP has one.
"You can see some … Bloc ridings that have gone from clear Bloc to something that's up for grabs. But I don't think there's going to be as many changes," said Nanos.
There might be some good news for the NDP, meanwhile, in Quebec. "You can see that little spot of orange just north of Montreal, where the NDP could pick up."
That riding is Laurentides—Labelle, which changed hands from the Bloc to the NDP in 2011, then to the Liberals in 2015 before going back to the Bloc in 2019.
"Quebec is very interesting because it's got those vote splits between the Bloc, the New Democrats, the Conservatives, and also the Liberals. If you're [NDP Leader] Jagmeet Singh and we're in a minority parliament, every riding counts. So Quebec will be one to watch."