A new Leger Marketing survey done for Valerie Plante's Projet Montreal party is suggesting the Montreal mayoralty vote on Nov. 5 will be a toss-up.
The web poll of 500 Montrealers done between Oct. 20-22 — after the French-language debate and just before the English one — shows Plante and incumbent Denis Coderre tied with 38 per cent support.
Plante is up a healthy nine points from a Mainstreet poll done last month, while Coderre has dropped five points.
21 per cent of respondents said they were undecided.
The poll also shows Plante jumped 11 points among non-francophones since Leger's last poll done in June, to 36 per cent support. Denis Coderre has 34 per cent support among non-francophones, down five points since the summer.
Coderre, interestingly, leads Plante among young voters. 37 per cent of those aged 18 to 34 said they would vote Coderre — up seven since the summer. Plante is down two points with that age group, to 31 per cent.
Plante, however, picked up 14 points since the summer among voters aged 35 to 54, and up a whopping 15 points among those 55 and over. Coderre, meantime, lost 16 points among the over-55s.
Analyst Philippe Fournier of the poll aggregating web site Qc125.com suggests there haven't been enough polls — there've been only three since June — to accurately predict what will actually happen on Nov. 5.
He notes he expects at least two more polls to come out between now and voting day.