Former federal NDP leader Thomas Mulcair says that he has confidence that his seat of Outremont will stay in New Democrat hands in a by-election expected after his resignation in the spring.
In an interview with TVA News, Mr. Mulcair dismissed speculation that the Liberal Party will be a shoe-in to notch yet another federal by-election gain once he gives up his seat in the House of Commons.
"[In] four straight elections the people of Outremont have elected a member of the NDP. With such a base, I am convinced that we will be able to keep [the riding]", said Mulcair in the interview.
Mulcair first won the seat for the NDP in a 2007 by-election, and won re-election in the seat with increasing margins at the 2008 and 2011 federal elections. In 2015, he was again re-elected but with a significantly reduced margin of victory, with Liberal candidate Rachel Bendayan posing a surprisingly strong challenge in the seat.
Since the 2015 election over two years ago, the federal Liberals have surged in opinion polls in Quebec, and the party already picked up the formerly Conservative-held seat of Lac Saint-Jean in a fall by-election.
Ms. Bendayan is already organizing a campaign team in an effort to win the Liberal nomination in the riding for the eventual by-election.
No by-election can be called until Mr. Mulcair has resigned from Parliament; after that, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has six months to send voters in the riding, which encompasses parts of the Outremont and Plateau Mont-Royal boroughs, to the polls.