The latest poll in the run up to the next provincial election has almost everyone gaining some ground and shows anything can happen on October 1.
The Léger-le Devoir-Gazette poll has François Legault and his CAQ in top spot, with 37 per cent support, up one per cent from the last poll (conducted 10 days earlier). The Quebec Liberals remain in second place with 32 per cent support, up two per cent this time around. The PQ gained one point to now sit at 19 per cent while Quebec Solidaire dropped from 10 per cent to eight.
The CAQ continues to be the preferred choice of Francophone voters (42 per cent), while the Liberals are the clear favourite among non-Francophones.
"Francois Legault is trying to have it both ways," CJAD 800 Commentator Tom Mulcair said on the Andrew Carter Morning Show, this morning. He said Legaults dog whistle politics is likely driving some key demographics back to the Liberals.
The Leger survey found women are most likely to support the CAQ over the other three parties, with 37 per cent of female respondents saying they would vote for Francois Legault's team (up four per cent). Their support among male voters is just as high, at 36 per cent but down about six points.
The Liberals are still the favourites in its usual Montreal ridings (even with the headline grabbing dismissal of Liberal MNA François Ouimet in Marquette), but Couillard continues to have a hard time getting any traction in rural, Francophone only ridings.
Age may also play a big factor in the election, as the CAQ has become the top choice in the over 55 category, while the Liberals are the party of choice for Quebecers 18-34.
"This is the first time the Liberals lead in milennials," said Jean-Marc Léger, the man behind the new poll, in an interview on the Leslie Roberts Show. "The bad side is that the older people are going for the CAQ."
Léger said this could be trouble for the Liberals on election day, as the older generations often vote in higher numbers than the younger ones.
In the end many of these numbers could still change once all the leaders take part in a series of debates next month. Those debates could prove to be a turning point as 38 per cent of respondents still had not made up their mind, some saying they're still open to switching sides.
"That's a very high number," Mulcair said. "I think people will really start making their minds up after this long weekend."
Léger said he expects this election to go right to the very end.
"In 2014, 40 per cent of the voters confirmed their vote on the last weekend," he said. "Quebecers take a lot of time to confirm which party you vote. You could see change until the end of this campaign."